Fernando Mendoza will almost certainly be the first name called in the 2026 NFL draft. Beyond that, however, the picture becomes much less certain, especially at quarterback, where this year’s class is widely viewed as underwhelming.
The depth at the position is so thin that the fourth quarterback selected may not come off the board until day three. That is a notable change from the pattern seen in most recent drafts. To find a year in which fewer than four quarterbacks were taken among the first 100 picks, you have to go back to 2013.
After Mendoza, from Indiana, and Alabama’s Ty Simpson, the draft board becomes difficult to read. It is unclear who will be the third quarterback selected. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State’s Drew Allar and Miami’s Carson Beck are all in the mix, but each comes with concerns that make them imperfect bets for teams seeking a long-term answer under center.
Questions after the top two quarterbacks
The gap between the top two quarterbacks and the rest of the field is a major storyline in this class. Mendoza is considered a likely No 1 overall pick, while Simpson appears to sit in a tier of his own behind him. After that, the uncertainty increases quickly.
Nussmeier, Allar and Beck have enough talent to remain part of the conversation, but none is viewed as a clean projection. That leaves teams to weigh upside against risk, and it may push some quarterbacks down the board more than expected.
In that setting, the most intriguing mid-round quarterback is Payton, a one-year starting left-hander from North Dakota State. He stands out in a class where the familiar names may dominate early discussion, but where teams could ultimately prefer a smaller swing on a less obvious prospect.
Where the value may be
The draft’s appeal is often found after the first round, and this class appears to offer several players who could entice teams willing to gamble on traits, fit or development. The source material points to prospects who may not be household names but who still have enough profile to matter once the big-board favorites are gone.
That includes players who project as potential mid-round steals, as well as those whose physical tools might outweigh their current polish. In a year without a deeply convincing quarterback group, those types of prospects can become especially important as teams try to find value without forcing a selection at a premium spot.
The broader point is that the 2026 draft may be defined not just by the expected early stars, but by the players who emerge later as worthwhile bets. With the quarterback class lacking certainty beyond the top names, attention will naturally shift to the next tier of prospects, where there may be more room for surprise than star power.
For teams, that creates a familiar draft challenge: deciding when a player’s upside is worth the risk. In a class like this one, that question may matter as much as the identity of the first overall pick.
